2010 Technology Outlook
By Babak Nabili
technology@nabili.com
As we enter into the new year, the prospects for new technologies are as abundant as ever. As it turns out, economic downturns encourage technology companies to innovate more boldly in hopes of improving sales and market share. The current economic downturn is no exception. 2010 is expected to bring in stiff competition into the cell phone market, which will ultimately translate into a richer experience and less expensive service for consumers. Advances in display technologies will also mean TVs with sharper image and lower power as well as color eBook readers.
The Apple Tablet
Rumors abound on the Internet about the planned release of a Tablet product from Apple in the March timeframe. Speculations are that the product will be effectively an iPhone on steroids, with a display of about 10 inches and no keyboard, equipped with the latest wireless connectivity features to allow access anywhere around town. This is expected to be Apple's attempt to trump the Netbooks, the largest growing segment of the PC market with their low price point and small form factor. Netbooks have served those who need rich Internet access but don't want to lug around a heavy laptop and are not happy with the tiny screen on their smart phones. Apple has been surprisingly absent from the Netbook market, so it'll be interesting to see how they differentiate themselves from others with the Tablet release.
iPhone on Verizon
Continuing on the Apple trail, many indications point to Verizon finally offering the iPhone on its network. Poor cell phone and 3G coverage from AT&T along with legislative probing into exclusivity rights between Apple & AT&T have created a strong incentive for Apple to offer its iPhone on the Verizon network. This will be a welcome move for consumers who prefer Verizon's strong cell coverage and speedier 3G networks. It remains to be seen whether there will be any service differentiations or limitations on the Verizon iPhone, and whether Apple will add new hardware features besides Verizon-compatible wireless components for this release.
Google Phone Service
As we predicted in early 2009, Google's Android operating system for smart phones was released on multiple phones and offered by many carriers, and seems to be descent gaining market share as a new entrant. To the industry's surprise though, in December 2009 Google announced that it will be providing its own phone service starting in 2010. Although many details are not known, this move will inevitably benefit the consumers by creating competition in pricing and features.
Google OS
Many expect Google to release a computer operating system (OS) in 2010, likely based on Android. The OS will likely be initially released as a pre-install on Netbooks, replacing the existing Windows OS from Microsoft. The benefit to customers will be a much less expensive Netbook solution, as Google will likely offer its OS for free in hopes of generating revenue from the resulting advertising displayed to the user. An important part of this OS, the browser named Chrome, has already been released for Windows, Linux, and Mac operating systems, giving Google a chance to mature the browser before the OS release.
4G & LTE
A significant step in achieving faster data speeds over the wireless phone networks is expected to roll out in 2010, as multiple competing technologies become widely available. Today's data rates for current 3G networks are in the order of a few hundred kilobits per second, significantly slower than the typical DSL or Cable connections that consumers get at home. These faster wireless connections will allow not only faster application responses on smart phones supporting this technology, but will also make the wireless data cards a must have for laptop and netbook users who need to be connected all the time. Sprint has already started touting its “4G” network, while Clearwire (a carrier solely dedicated to providing these faster connections) rolled out its service in multiple cities in 2009 with expanding coverage in 2010. These services will be advertized under multiple names, including 4G, LTE, and possibly WiMax.
LED-Backlit TVs
2009 was the first year for wide availability of LED-backlit TVs, although they were still noticeably pricier than their regular LCD & Plasma counterparts. LED-backlit TVs, as their name suggests, use LEDs (Light Emitting Diodes) to generate the backlight needed for the LCD display, compared to the more common LCD displays that use a much less efficient way of generating the backlight. The benefit of using LEDs here, besides saving a significant amount of power, is that the lighting for each pixel can be turned on and off as needed, which will result in much richer blacks that have always been a challenge with LCDs. LED-backlit TV prices are expected to fall dramatically in 2010, reaching current LCD prices. This will be a significant step in making consumer TV choices simple and affordable at the same time.
Color eBook Readers
A few months ago we reviewed the eBook readers currently available on the market. You may recall that we discussed their black and white screens being a limitation to displaying color pictures. Well, that will likely change in 2010 as the color display technology for these readers becomes manufacturable. Although we don't expect to see the color generation until later in the year, the color feature will motivate those sitting on the sidelines to grab a reader for themselves.
